EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership: Detailed Appraisal of the Commission's Impact Assessment
This research paper examines the appropriateness and validity of the methodology behind the European Commission’s Impact Assessment (IA) of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), focusing in particular on the underlying economic model, a computable general equilibrium (CGE). The methodology applied by CEPR for this economic modelling is analysed in depth, together with the assumptions used to make the TTIP amenable to an economic appraisal. The research paper also compares the IA on the TTIP with selected previous empirical economic assessments of EU trade agreements and with a set of alternative studies on the TTIP itself. In reading our findings, two central caveats should be kept in mind that affect any analysis of the CGE model included in the European Commission's Impact Assessment. First, the TTIP is a rather unusual bilateral trade agreement; and second, the TTIP is so wide-ranging that an alternative approach, such as the so-called 'partial' (equilibrium) approach – already a second-best solution – would be totally inappropriate to the case under examination.
Study
External author
Jacques Pelkmans, Arjan Lejour, Lorna Schrefler, Federica Mustilli and Jacopo Timini (CEPS)
About this document
Publication type
Policy area
Keyword
- America
- comparative analysis
- economic analysis
- economic consequence
- economic forecasting
- economic geography
- economic model
- ECONOMICS
- EMPLOYMENT AND WORKING CONDITIONS
- ENVIRONMENT
- environmental impact
- environmental policy
- European construction
- EUROPEAN UNION
- free-trade agreement
- GEOGRAPHY
- impact study
- international trade
- labour market
- labour market
- non-tariff barrier
- political geography
- PRODUCTION, TECHNOLOGY AND RESEARCH
- public contract
- research and intellectual property
- social framework
- social impact
- SOCIAL QUESTIONS
- TRADE
- trade agreement (EU)
- trade policy
- United States