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Member States with Excessive Macroeconomic Imbalances

07-11-2019

This note provides an overview of the surveillance of the three Member States that have been assessed as experiencing excessive macroeconomic imbalances in the context of the 2019 European Semester cycle and according to the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP). Separate notes describe the state of play of the MIP implementation and the MIP procedure.

This note provides an overview of the surveillance of the three Member States that have been assessed as experiencing excessive macroeconomic imbalances in the context of the 2019 European Semester cycle and according to the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP). Separate notes describe the state of play of the MIP implementation and the MIP procedure.

Thematic overview: Member States whose 2019 DBPs are "at risk of non-compliance" with the Stability and Growth Pact

07-12-2018

This briefing gives an overview of recent European Commission (COM) opinions on the budgetary situation of five Member States (Belgium, Spain, France, Portugal and Slovenia) whose 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBPs) are assessed to be “at risk of non-compliance” with their obligations under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and of one country (Italy) whose 2019 DBP is considered to be in particularly serious non-compliance with its obligations under the SGP. This briefing will be updated as further ...

This briefing gives an overview of recent European Commission (COM) opinions on the budgetary situation of five Member States (Belgium, Spain, France, Portugal and Slovenia) whose 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBPs) are assessed to be “at risk of non-compliance” with their obligations under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) and of one country (Italy) whose 2019 DBP is considered to be in particularly serious non-compliance with its obligations under the SGP. This briefing will be updated as further assessments by the COM become available during spring 2019.

Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA III)

23-11-2018

On 14 June 2018, the European Commission published a proposal for a regulation establishing the Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA) III as part of a set of external action instruments under the new 2021 to 2027 multiannual financial framework (MFF). The proposed financial envelope represents a 1.1 % decrease compared with current funding (€12.9 billion in 2018 prices). Beneficiaries include the Western Balkan countries and Turkey. The IPA, set up for the 2007 to 2013 MFF, aims to prepare ...

On 14 June 2018, the European Commission published a proposal for a regulation establishing the Instrument for Pre-accession Assistance (IPA) III as part of a set of external action instruments under the new 2021 to 2027 multiannual financial framework (MFF). The proposed financial envelope represents a 1.1 % decrease compared with current funding (€12.9 billion in 2018 prices). Beneficiaries include the Western Balkan countries and Turkey. The IPA, set up for the 2007 to 2013 MFF, aims to prepare candidate and potential candidate countries for EU membership and supports them in adopting and implementing the necessary political, institutional, legal, administrative, social and economic reforms. IPA III is clearly positioned in the context of the new Western Balkan strategy, adopted in February 2018, and builds in flexibility via à vis the evolving situation in Turkey. It is also designed to complement the EU's internal policies. In Parliament, the file has been allocated to the Committee for Foreign Affairs (AFET), with José Ignacio Salafranca Sánchez-Neyra (EPP, Spain) and Knut Fleckenstein (S&D, Germany) as co-rapporteurs. The draft report presented by the rapporteurs on 30 October 2018 is now awaiting adoption by AFET. First edition. EU Legislation in Progress briefings are updated at key stages throughout the legislative procedure.

Debt Sustainability Assessments: The state of the art

15-11-2018

The approach to Debt Sustainability Assessments (DSAs) has substantially evolved after the global crisis, consistent with the goal of improving detection of high and low frequency risks. DSAs cover an increasing number of indicators, systematically look into implicit and contingent liabilities, and use statistical methods to quantify “tail events”. They also operationalize debt limits, by adopting thresholds for debt and payment flows to single out enhanced vulnerability. While these developments ...

The approach to Debt Sustainability Assessments (DSAs) has substantially evolved after the global crisis, consistent with the goal of improving detection of high and low frequency risks. DSAs cover an increasing number of indicators, systematically look into implicit and contingent liabilities, and use statistical methods to quantify “tail events”. They also operationalize debt limits, by adopting thresholds for debt and payment flows to single out enhanced vulnerability. While these developments mark true progress, this paper focuses on liquidity risk, contagion risk and the identification of debt limits as critical areas limiting DSA effectiveness, explains why DSA should embed potentially available official support and how an incomplete lending architecture is a hurdle for DSA. The paper concludes with a comparative assessment of current standard DSAs, suggests directions for further improvement and discusses the correct use of DSAs in light of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in the underlying methodologies..

Autor extern

Giancarlo Corsetti

Debt Sustainability Assessments: The state of the art

14-11-2018

Autor extern

Cinzia ALCIDI and Daniel GROS

Greece’s financial assistance programme - June 2018

22-06-2018

This briefing provides an overview of the economic situation in Greece and the main developments under the third financial assistance programme. This version updates the briefing published on 3 October 2017.

This briefing provides an overview of the economic situation in Greece and the main developments under the third financial assistance programme. This version updates the briefing published on 3 October 2017.

How demanding and consistent is the 2018 stress test design in comparison to previous exercises?

14-06-2018

We provide an assessment of the design and calibration of the 2018 EU-wide stress test. The adverse scenario for the 2018 stress test is more severe than for previous stress tests in terms of the assumed GDP decline in the EU area. However, the test is less severe in terms of the losses that banks are expected to incur under the scenario. The adverse scenario has a highly asymmetric impact on different European countries, such that countries with a high degree of trade openness are affected considerably ...

We provide an assessment of the design and calibration of the 2018 EU-wide stress test. The adverse scenario for the 2018 stress test is more severe than for previous stress tests in terms of the assumed GDP decline in the EU area. However, the test is less severe in terms of the losses that banks are expected to incur under the scenario. The adverse scenario has a highly asymmetric impact on different European countries, such that countries with a high degree of trade openness are affected considerably more. It seems unlikely that the assumed scenario constitutes the most plausible threat scenario for the EU economy. Since banks use heterogeneous models to forecast the stress scenario impact on loan losses and since the EBA does not publish its own respective benchmark parameters, the public cannot fully assess the true severity of the test in terms of its impact on banks’ capital. We argue that both the lack of transparency and the heterogeneity of banks’ practices to forecast stress scenario induced losses considerably weaken the credibility of the stress test and limit its usefulness in supporting market discipline among European banks.

Autor extern

Rainer HASELMANN , Mark WAHRENBURG

Further macro-financial assistance to Ukraine

06-06-2018

The European Parliament is expected to vote in June 2018 on the Commission's proposal for further macro-financial assistance (MFA) to Ukraine. Future disbursements of MFA will depend on the country's progress in the fight against corruption, among other preconditions.

The European Parliament is expected to vote in June 2018 on the Commission's proposal for further macro-financial assistance (MFA) to Ukraine. Future disbursements of MFA will depend on the country's progress in the fight against corruption, among other preconditions.

Economic Dialogue with the President of the Eurogroup - ECON on 21 February 2018

19-02-2018

Mário Centeno, President of the Eurogroup since 13 January 2018, has been invited to a regular Economic Dialogue, notably in accordance with Article 2ab of Regulation 1466/97 as amended. This briefing provides an overview of the ongoing work of the Eurogroup as regards public finances, macro-economic imbalances, financial adjustment programmes and the banking union. As the President of the Eurogroup, Mr Centeno has also been appointed as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the European Stability ...

Mário Centeno, President of the Eurogroup since 13 January 2018, has been invited to a regular Economic Dialogue, notably in accordance with Article 2ab of Regulation 1466/97 as amended. This briefing provides an overview of the ongoing work of the Eurogroup as regards public finances, macro-economic imbalances, financial adjustment programmes and the banking union. As the President of the Eurogroup, Mr Centeno has also been appointed as Chairman of the Board of Governors of the European Stability Mechanism.

The state of implementation of the associations and free trade agreements with Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova with a particular focus on Ukraine and systemic analysis of key sectors

16-11-2017

Signing and ratifying Association Agreements with Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine has proven to be an impressive affirmation of Brussels’ soft power. The EU’s overtures have persuaded elites and mobilised societies despite the fact that the Agreements come neither with a membership promise nor with the kind of financial assistance that has been given to the EU’s new member states. EU assistance has been effective in restoring macro-financial stability in all three countries. While costs of compliance ...

Signing and ratifying Association Agreements with Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine has proven to be an impressive affirmation of Brussels’ soft power. The EU’s overtures have persuaded elites and mobilised societies despite the fact that the Agreements come neither with a membership promise nor with the kind of financial assistance that has been given to the EU’s new member states. EU assistance has been effective in restoring macro-financial stability in all three countries. While costs of compliance with the DCFTA were calculated, level of investment associated with the necessary modernisation to make these economies competitive were neglected. The discrepancy between costs and benefits should prompt the EU to be more flexible. Brussels’ achievements remain fragile. Informal interests continue to play important roles in these countries and have the potential to thwart reforms. In the absence of strong, de-politicised institutions, the EU should work to support political consolidation—the alternative is further polarisation and political fragility—while at the same time insisting on adherence to democratic standards and strengthened institutional checks and balances.

Autor extern

Iulian GROZA; Balazs JARABIK (coordinator); Jana KOBZOVA; Dr. Viktor KONSTANTYNOV; Tsovinar KUIUMCHIAN; Leonid LITRA; Tornike SHARASHENIDZE; Isaac WEBB

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