Mexico 2018: Elections that will make history

Briefing 21-06-2018

Mexico's 1 July 2018 elections will be the biggest in its history, as people go to the polls to vote for the country's president and legislature, but also for most of its governors and local councillors. There is a record number of registered voters (89 million), 45 % of whom are below the age of 35 and 12 million are newly entitled to vote. For the first time in decades, a candidate of the left has real chances of becoming president. For the first time in the country's political history, some candidates are able to stand for consecutive re-election, and independent candidates are running for president or member of the Senate. On a more negative note, the 2018 Mexican election process has been one of the most violent so far, with over a hundred politicians and candidates murdered since it started in September 2017, and hundreds others exposed to aggression. Nine political parties grouped in three different coalitions, as well as some independent candidates, will participate in the elections. There are four presidential candidates. Of these, left-wing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador leads the polls with nearly 50 % of the voting intention, followed by right-wing candidate Roberto Anaya with over 25 %, centre candidate Juan Antonio Meade with just around 20 %, and independent candidate Jaime Rodríguez with slightly over 2 %. The high number of young and new voters, the climate of political violence and US President Donald Trump's Mexican policy – or the 'Trump effect' – are among the main factors likely to influence the results. Mexico is a strategic partner of the EU and the parties hold high-level dialogues with each other. The Global Agreement between the two parties is being modernised, with a new trade agreement in principle having been reached in April 2018. This process has been supported by the European Parliament, which has also shown concern for the violence affecting the country.