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Potential Output Estimates and their Role in the EU Fiscal Policy Surveillance

11-02-2020

The surveillance of fiscal policies of EU Members States makes extensive use of estimates of the potential output and related concepts, including output gap and structural balance. This note provides an overview of these concepts, of their use and of the main issues related to them .

The surveillance of fiscal policies of EU Members States makes extensive use of estimates of the potential output and related concepts, including output gap and structural balance. This note provides an overview of these concepts, of their use and of the main issues related to them .

Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact - January 2020

16-01-2020

This document provides an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of (1) the latest Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact; (2) the latest European Commission economic forecasts; and (3) the latest European Commission opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans of euro area Member States. This document is regularly updated.

This document provides an overview of key developments under the preventive and corrective arms of the Stability and Growth Pact on the basis of (1) the latest Council decisions and recommendations in the framework of the Stability and Growth Pact; (2) the latest European Commission economic forecasts; and (3) the latest European Commission opinions on the Draft Budgetary Plans of euro area Member States. This document is regularly updated.

Communication During Unconventional Times: The ECB’s Approach

15-01-2020

During the past five years, communication of the ECB has changed drastically, not least with the introduction of forward guidance. Against this backdrop, this note assesses how successful the central bank has been in influencing financial markets and expectations and discusses the challenges for future ECB communication. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

During the past five years, communication of the ECB has changed drastically, not least with the introduction of forward guidance. Against this backdrop, this note assesses how successful the central bank has been in influencing financial markets and expectations and discusses the challenges for future ECB communication. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

External author

Eddie GERBA and Corrado MACCHIARELLI

Key Macroeconomic Indicators for Cyprus, Greece, Ireland and Portugal

12-11-2019

This document provides a selection of key indicators in Member States that are or have been subject to a Macroeconomic Adjustment Programme. Greece is still under a programme, while Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus have exited their programmes and are now under so-called post-programme surveillance. For more information on the programmes, please see a separate document on Financial Assistance to EU Member States.

This document provides a selection of key indicators in Member States that are or have been subject to a Macroeconomic Adjustment Programme. Greece is still under a programme, while Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus have exited their programmes and are now under so-called post-programme surveillance. For more information on the programmes, please see a separate document on Financial Assistance to EU Member States.

Expected real GDP growth for 2019 in EU Member States

27-05-2019

The map below shows the 2019 expected real Gross Domestic Product growth based on the European Commission’s spring 2019 forecast; the data will be updated on regular basis once new forecasts will be available.

The map below shows the 2019 expected real Gross Domestic Product growth based on the European Commission’s spring 2019 forecast; the data will be updated on regular basis once new forecasts will be available.

External author

New edition 2016

Selected Euro Area Macroeconomic Indicators

24-05-2019

This table prepared by the Economic Governance Support Unit includes Euro Area key indicators and latest forecasts from the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

This table prepared by the Economic Governance Support Unit includes Euro Area key indicators and latest forecasts from the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

IMF World Economic Outlook reflects consensus views

15-01-2019

This briefing is provided by Policy Department A following the participation of the Members of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) in the Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) Group in Indonesia on 8-14 October 2018.

This briefing is provided by Policy Department A following the participation of the Members of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) in the Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) Group in Indonesia on 8-14 October 2018.

Key features of 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans

09-11-2018

This document compares key features of the 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) with the autumn 2018 forecasts by the European Commission (EC) and key features included in the 2018 Stability Programmes (SP) with the spring 2018 forecasts by the EC. While blue cells indicate that the Member State is more optimistic than the EC forecast, grey cells indicate that the Member State is less optimistic than the EC forecast. An overview comparing these figures with the required fiscal efforts and the medium-term ...

This document compares key features of the 2019 Draft Budgetary Plans (DBP) with the autumn 2018 forecasts by the European Commission (EC) and key features included in the 2018 Stability Programmes (SP) with the spring 2018 forecasts by the EC. While blue cells indicate that the Member State is more optimistic than the EC forecast, grey cells indicate that the Member State is less optimistic than the EC forecast. An overview comparing these figures with the required fiscal efforts and the medium-term budgetary objectives in structural terms (MTO), as included in the latest Council decisions/recommendations, is provided in a separate EGOV document.

How demanding and consistent is the 2018 stress test design in comparison to previous exercises?

13-06-2018

The 2018 EU-wide stress test requires banks to evaluate the impact on profits and capital of common macroeconomic scenarios for 2018-2020. The methodology set up by the EBA addresses four main sources of uncertainty: credit risk, market risk, financial risks on net interest income and operational risk. Credit risk is assessed on the basis of the new IFRS 9 accounting standard. Market risk includes a valuation of illiquid, hard-to-price level 2/3 financial instruments. Net interest income is assumed ...

The 2018 EU-wide stress test requires banks to evaluate the impact on profits and capital of common macroeconomic scenarios for 2018-2020. The methodology set up by the EBA addresses four main sources of uncertainty: credit risk, market risk, financial risks on net interest income and operational risk. Credit risk is assessed on the basis of the new IFRS 9 accounting standard. Market risk includes a valuation of illiquid, hard-to-price level 2/3 financial instruments. Net interest income is assumed to suffer from an asymmetric increase in the rates earned on assets and paid on liabilities. Operating risk includes conduct risk and takes into account past loss events. This written advice highlights some weaknesses in the EBA methodology, which may lead to a different degree of conservativeness for some business models or countries. It also discusses ways to make future stress tests more realistic and reliable, by addressing resource gaps and improving governance.

External author

Andrea Resti

Comparison of key figures in the 2018 Stability Programmes and European Commission spring 2018 forecast

08-06-2018

The purpose of this document is to show the differences between some key indicators of the 2018 Stability Programmes (SP) of the Euro Area Member States and the spring 2018 forecast of the European Commission (EC). In accordance with Article 4 of Council Directive 2011/85/EU, the budgetary planning of the Member States “shall be based on the most likely macrofiscal scenario or on a more prudent scenario. (…). Significant dif¬fe¬ren¬ces between the chosen macrofiscal scenario and the (most recent) ...

The purpose of this document is to show the differences between some key indicators of the 2018 Stability Programmes (SP) of the Euro Area Member States and the spring 2018 forecast of the European Commission (EC). In accordance with Article 4 of Council Directive 2011/85/EU, the budgetary planning of the Member States “shall be based on the most likely macrofiscal scenario or on a more prudent scenario. (…). Significant dif¬fe¬ren¬ces between the chosen macrofiscal scenario and the (most recent) Commission’s forecast shall be described with reasoning (…).”

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