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After a series of unprecedented interest rate hikes on both sides of the Atlantic, inflation in the euro area and the United States is cooling down from a 40-year high. However, uncertainty about the inflation and growth outlook remains high, as the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve are considering their next moves. Five papers were prepared by the ECON Committee’s Monetary Expert Panel, making a comparative assessment of inflation dynamics and monetary policy stances in the two monetary ...

Shades of Green Monetary Policy- Would a green tilt help?

Análisis en profundidad 15-11-2023

Any greening of monetary policy is likely to have at best a marginal effect on emissions given the very small spreads on the yields of green bonds and the cap on emissions inherent in the EU’s emissions trading system. Trying to limit the supply of capital to brown industries could backfire as these industries are those most in need of financing for capital-intensive decarbonisation. These arguments apply both to the tilting of investments under the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) towards ...

Following recent episodes of stress in the banking sector in the US and Switzerland, the ECB’s role in safeguarding financial stability is under scrutiny. The ECB has claimed that no trade-off exists between its primary mandate on maintaining price stability and safeguarding financial stability. Furthermore, the 2021 monetary policy strategy review confirmed that financial stability is a pre-condition for financial stability, and vice-versa. Yet, further interest rate hikes may still give lead to ...

Euro area monetary policy: quarterly overview, June 2023

Análisis en profundidad 02-06-2023

This briefing paper was prepared ahead of the Monetary Dialogue between the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) and the European Central Bank (ECB) President on Monday, 5 June. It provides a summary of key monetary policy developments and decisions taken by the ECB’s Governing Council.

We argue that a hard stagflation scenario is still possible. This would have the potential to create a conflict between price stability and financial stability. We therefore address four questions. Why should central banks be concerned with financial stability? What financial imbalances should central banks be worried about? Are monetary policy and macroprudential regulation two tools for two goals? Is the ECB poised to face the price stability vs. financial stability trade-off?

According to its price stability mandate, the European Central Bank (ECB) conducts a single monetary policy by targeting the aggregate euro area inflation rate. Even though monetary policy is not geared towards addressing inflation dispersion between Member States, wide inflation differentials have implications for monetary policy. At the moment of extreme volatility and high energy prices, Member States experience very high levels of headline and core inflation dispersion, affecting monetary policy ...

This paper was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) ahead of the Monetary Dialogue with the ECB President on 26 September 2022.

Croacia se incorpora a la zona del euro

De un vistazo 29-06-2022

El 1 de enero de 2023, Croacia se convertirá en el 20.º país que se incorporará a la zona del euro y adoptará la moneda común. Dos evaluaciones independientes, de la Comisión Europea y del Banco Central Europeo (BCE), constataron que Croacia cumple los requisitos de adhesión a la zona del euro. Sin embargo, persisten retos significativos para que Croacia pueda mantener una trayectoria sostenible a medio plazo.

On 26 July 2012, then ECB President Mario Draghi gave the so-called “whatever it takes” speech, today widely considered as the turnaround point in the European sovereign debt crisis. Shortly after, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced the details of its outright monetary transactions programme (OMT) tool. The speech, together with the OMT announcement, were enough to remove re-denomination risk from sovereign bond markets. OMT was never actually used. 10 years after, in a context of record-high ...

Inflation expectations: models and measures

Análisis en profundidad 31-01-2022

Inflation expectations are key inputs into monetary policy, but they also represent one of the most difficult variables to measure. Inflation expectations are particularly difficult to pin down in a low inflation environment in which important relative prices experience large changes. The available measures of inflation expectations differ widely across different sources and could be used at most as an additional element in monetary policy decisions, but not as a target. This paper was provided ...