Are European bond markets overshooting?
Analyse approfondie
15-05-2017
We find that monetary variables, spillovers from US financial markets, expectations and sovereign risks are the main determinants of long-term interest rates in the EA. The empirical model does not identify recent overshooting. The observed rise since August 2016 is attributed to two factors: a) the increase in US long-term interest rates after the reversal in the Fed’s monetary stance; b) political tensions in France, Italy or Spain which generated higher perceived political risk.
Analyse approfondie
Auteur externe
Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL, Paul HUBERT, Fabien LABONDANCE (OFCE)
À propos de ce document
Type de publication
Mot-clé
- analyse économique
- analyse économique
- comptabilité nationale
- coût du crédit
- euro-émission
- financement à long terme
- FINANCES
- GÉOGRAPHIE
- géographie économique
- institutions financières et crédit
- intérêt
- investissement et financement
- libre circulation des capitaux
- relations monétaires
- risque financier
- zone euro
- ÉCONOMIE
- économie monétaire
- épargne
- État membre UE