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The 2015 Paris Climate Agreement and the 2019 European Green Deal initiated a wave of EU policies and legislation to combat climate change and protect the environment. Achieving a green transition became a key driver of EU policies. While many pieces of legislation were being discussed or adopted, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine moved the political focus to supply chain security and energy dependencies. Since then, achieving open European strategic autonomy for the EU economy ...

This analysis looks at the future of the EU and Ukraine, using a time horizon of 2035. It was launched in June 2022 as a Strategic Foresight Conversation, a few months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022. The ensuing war has drastically changed all aspects of life in Ukraine, affects the EU in many significant ways and shifted pre-war geopolitical and geo-economic paradigms. The European Council decision of 24 June 2022 to give candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova added to ...

The European Parliament started monitoring future shocks during the coronavirus crisis, and has continued to do so during Russia's unprecedented war on Ukraine. The annual 'Future Shocks' series reviews global risks, with a focus on specific risks and the capabilities and resilience of the EU system in the face of multiple challenges. It seeks to provide up-to-date, objective and authoritative information on these risks, based on risk literature from a broad range of sources. 'Future Shocks' includes ...

Russia's war on Ukraine has caused the European Union (EU) to intensify its work for peace and security. The Peace and Security Outlook, produced by the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), seeks to analyse and explain the European Union's contribution to the promotion and restoration of peace and security internationally, through its various external policies. This study provides an overview of the issues and current state of play. It looks first at the concept of peace and the changing ...

That the EU imports almost 60 % of its energy shows that real EU strategic autonomy in energy is far from achieved. The current energy crisis poses a risk to all four EU energy policy objectives. Crisis in the energy market is causing public and private debt and inflation, which risks destabilizing the European energy market. While diversifying gas imports away from Russia reduces dependency on one big supplier, reliance on several other third countries implies new supply risks. Although high fossil ...

EU strategic autonomy (EU-SA) refers to the capacity of the EU to act autonomously – that is, without being dependent on other countries – in strategically important policy areas. These can range from defence policy to the economy, and the capacity to uphold democratic values. In order to structure the debate on strategic autonomy into analytical categories, this briefing assumes that by and large there have been several phases to the debate about EU-SA, each with a different focus. From 2013 to ...

This analysis looks into the complex relationship between two trends in international governance: an increase in multilateral arrangements between countries in order to govern internationally on the one hand, and a lack of democratic control over the decisions taken by multilateral organisations or conferences on the other. Multilateralism in the modern sense refers to an international mode of operation involving peaceful negotiations and diplomacy, also referred to as a ‘rules-based international ...

There is a general perception in Western countries that the role of values as a foreign policy driver is currently on the decline. This study in the series ‘global trends in external policies’ seeks to contribute to the debate by investigating what is meant by ‘values’, whether their importance is on the wane and, if so, how this manifests itself, and how the European Union (EU) can respond to these trends. The broad concept of values has therefore been split into five categories. Socio-cultural ...

Scarcity of medical equipment during the COVID-19 crisis, and the ensuing discussion on ‘reshoring’ certain industries back to Europe, have brought back an old dilemma. Namely, countries wish to be strategically independent while depending on products and resources from other countries to fulfil their economic needs. This reflects the debate about whether markets or governments are better at delivering solutions. We can also define this debate as a choice between ‘competitive capitalism’ and ‘strategic ...

The Commission Executive Vice-President/Commissioner-designate, Valdis Dombrovskis, appeared before the European Parliament on 02 October 2020 to answer questions put by MEPs from the Committee on International Trade, in association with the Committees on Foreign Affairs, on Economic and Monetary Affairs, on Development and on Budgets. During the hearing, he made a number of commitments which are highlighted in this document. These commitments refer to his portfolio as Trade Commissioner, as described ...