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IMF World Economic Outlook reflects consensus views

15-01-2019

This briefing is provided by Policy Department A following the participation of the Members of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) in the Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) Group in Indonesia on 8-14 October 2018.

This briefing is provided by Policy Department A following the participation of the Members of the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON) in the Annual Meetings of the Boards of Governors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) Group in Indonesia on 8-14 October 2018.

Debt Sustainability Assessments: The state of the art

15-11-2018

The approach to Debt Sustainability Assessments (DSAs) has substantially evolved after the global crisis, consistent with the goal of improving detection of high and low frequency risks. DSAs cover an increasing number of indicators, systematically look into implicit and contingent liabilities, and use statistical methods to quantify “tail events”. They also operationalize debt limits, by adopting thresholds for debt and payment flows to single out enhanced vulnerability. While these developments ...

The approach to Debt Sustainability Assessments (DSAs) has substantially evolved after the global crisis, consistent with the goal of improving detection of high and low frequency risks. DSAs cover an increasing number of indicators, systematically look into implicit and contingent liabilities, and use statistical methods to quantify “tail events”. They also operationalize debt limits, by adopting thresholds for debt and payment flows to single out enhanced vulnerability. While these developments mark true progress, this paper focuses on liquidity risk, contagion risk and the identification of debt limits as critical areas limiting DSA effectiveness, explains why DSA should embed potentially available official support and how an incomplete lending architecture is a hurdle for DSA. The paper concludes with a comparative assessment of current standard DSAs, suggests directions for further improvement and discusses the correct use of DSAs in light of the strengths and weaknesses inherent in the underlying methodologies..

Külső szerző

Giancarlo Corsetti

Debt Sustainability Assessments: The state of the art

14-11-2018

Külső szerző

Cinzia ALCIDI and Daniel GROS

The ESM and the IMF: comparison of the main features

27-04-2018

This document provides a comparison of the main objectives, tools and governance structures of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It contributes to the debate on recent proposal regarding the possible evolution of the ESM into a “European Monetary Fund”, in the wider context of the discussions on how to strengthen the governance of Economic and Monetary Union. The note also presents summaries of three external papers prepared in spring 2017, upon ...

This document provides a comparison of the main objectives, tools and governance structures of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It contributes to the debate on recent proposal regarding the possible evolution of the ESM into a “European Monetary Fund”, in the wider context of the discussions on how to strengthen the governance of Economic and Monetary Union. The note also presents summaries of three external papers prepared in spring 2017, upon a request of the Economic and Monetary Committee on this subject.

An evolutionary path for a European Monetary Fund?

31-08-2017

The ECON Committee requested the opinion of three external experts on the possible set up of a ‘European Monetary Fund’. This note provides the general background and summarizes the experts’ contributions.

The ECON Committee requested the opinion of three external experts on the possible set up of a ‘European Monetary Fund’. This note provides the general background and summarizes the experts’ contributions.

The future of multilateralism: Crisis or opportunity?

10-05-2017

Multilateralism lies at the core of the EU’s identity and of its engagement with the world. Both the 2003 European Security Strategy and the 2016 Global Strategy emphasised the importance of a rules-based global order with multilateralism as its key principle and the United Nations (UN) at its core, and made its promotion part of the EU’s strategic goals. Yet, in spite of widespread acknowledgement of the achievements of the multilateral international order established after the Second World War, ...

Multilateralism lies at the core of the EU’s identity and of its engagement with the world. Both the 2003 European Security Strategy and the 2016 Global Strategy emphasised the importance of a rules-based global order with multilateralism as its key principle and the United Nations (UN) at its core, and made its promotion part of the EU’s strategic goals. Yet, in spite of widespread acknowledgement of the achievements of the multilateral international order established after the Second World War, and in particular of the attainment of long-lasting peace, multilateral institutions and the liberal international order in which they are embedded have recently been the subject of severe criticism. The rise of populist nationalism has been interpreted, among other things, as a crisis in support for the multilateral order. Some of the causes of this crisis are related to the emergence of new actors in the global scene, the expansive nature of multilateral institutions, the widening gap between publics and international institutions and the decline of American power. The election of Donald Trump, who had repeatedly questioned the value of multilateral organisations such as the UN, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the World Trade Organization (WTO), has led to even greater preoccupation about the future of global governance. In this scenario, several scholars suggest that the EU and the G20 should be proactive in safeguarding multilateralism, while acknowledging and promoting the necessary reforms to the architecture of global governance.

An evolutionary path towards a European Monetary Fund?

03-05-2017

There is no need for Europe to replicate the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) can provide the backstop for sovereigns, even without a financial contribution from the IMF. In this sense, the ESM already constitutes to a large extent a ‘European Monetary Fund’. Other IMF functions such as surveillance and policy coordination should remain with the European Commission, the Eurogroup and other existing bodies. The ESM will be called upon to act as a backstop only ...

There is no need for Europe to replicate the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) can provide the backstop for sovereigns, even without a financial contribution from the IMF. In this sense, the ESM already constitutes to a large extent a ‘European Monetary Fund’. Other IMF functions such as surveillance and policy coordination should remain with the European Commission, the Eurogroup and other existing bodies. The ESM will be called upon to act as a backstop only intermittently, in times of great financial market instability. The need for it will evolve as a function of the nature of financial markets and their cross-border integration. It is not possible to forecast with any precision when the next financial crisis might break out and what form it will take. Any evolution in the functioning of the ESM should thus aim at enhancing flexibility and clarity of its overall mandate (financial stability), rather than revising the details of the rescue mechanism (which should be extended to the Single Resolution Fund) and its modus operandi. Moreover, the ESM should be viewed as the natural instrument for unifying the euro area’s representation in the IMF.

Külső szerző

Daniel Gros (Centre for European Policy Studies)

A European Monetary Fund?

03-05-2017

The creation of a European Monetary Fund seems a natural next step to improve upon the European Stability Mechanism. This paper argues that such a step is neither necessary nor desirable, for many reasons. First, the European Stability Mechanism is a fundamental contradiction with the no-bailout rule, which is arguably the most crucial instrument to foster fiscal discipline in the Eurozone. Second, any insurance mechanism creates moral hazard. A European Monetary Fund would be deeply immersed in ...

The creation of a European Monetary Fund seems a natural next step to improve upon the European Stability Mechanism. This paper argues that such a step is neither necessary nor desirable, for many reasons. First, the European Stability Mechanism is a fundamental contradiction with the no-bailout rule, which is arguably the most crucial instrument to foster fiscal discipline in the Eurozone. Second, any insurance mechanism creates moral hazard. A European Monetary Fund would be deeply immersed in conflicts of interest among its members. Third, it would have to fit in alongside the Commission and the Eurosystem, already in charge of monitoring the Eurozone countries, preventing crises, lending in last resort and developing debt-restructuring principles. Fourth, it would need a highly competent staff to deal with crises but idle in quiet times. Fifth, its governance should guarantee fast action when needed, with proper accountability and undue politicisation. These are serious hurdles and the IMF can perform the task.

Külső szerző

Charles Wyplosz

Sovereign debt restructuring Main drivers and mechanism

28-02-2017

This briefing provides an overview of the main issues relating to the restructuring of sovereign debt, and outlines the factors which impact the decision as to whether or not to proceed with debt restructuring. Restructuring is a complex issue – it involves positive and negative aspects, which need to be analysed in order to be able to determine whether it can deliver any added value. ‘A sovereign debt restructuring can be defined as an exchange of outstanding sovereign debt instruments, such as ...

This briefing provides an overview of the main issues relating to the restructuring of sovereign debt, and outlines the factors which impact the decision as to whether or not to proceed with debt restructuring. Restructuring is a complex issue – it involves positive and negative aspects, which need to be analysed in order to be able to determine whether it can deliver any added value. ‘A sovereign debt restructuring can be defined as an exchange of outstanding sovereign debt instruments, such as loans or bonds, for new debt instruments or cash through a legal process’. The current situation in the euro area, characterised by high levels of debt and the continuing trend of many Member States to run budget deficits, combined with a low growth environment, raises the issue of debt sustainability. In addition, the low level of inflation recorded in recent years (and deflation in some cases) has played an important role in the increase of debt burdens. The lack of an EU - level transparent framework for sovereign debt restructuring could potentially entail higher additional costs. As part of the EU’s financial stability management instruments, sovereign debt restructuring could form a part of the EU toolbox.

Bosnia and Herzegovina: Developments in 2016

07-02-2017

In 2016, Bosnia and Herzegovina completed several formal requirements necessary for obtaining EU candidate status. However, other developments exposed the country's ongoing political and ethnic rifts, and the need for thorough reforms and enhanced cooperation among all levels of government.

In 2016, Bosnia and Herzegovina completed several formal requirements necessary for obtaining EU candidate status. However, other developments exposed the country's ongoing political and ethnic rifts, and the need for thorough reforms and enhanced cooperation among all levels of government.

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