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Foresight within the EU institutions: The ESPAS analysis so far

13-10-2020

Three ESPAS Global Trends Reports identify major shifts through the 2010s and the challenges they pose for the European Union. The reports tease out both risks and opportunities arising in geopolitics, the economy, technology, the environment and society. They underline the need for anticipatory governance and for the development of a strategic foresight culture within the EU institutions.

Three ESPAS Global Trends Reports identify major shifts through the 2010s and the challenges they pose for the European Union. The reports tease out both risks and opportunities arising in geopolitics, the economy, technology, the environment and society. They underline the need for anticipatory governance and for the development of a strategic foresight culture within the EU institutions.

Foresight for resilience: The European Commission's first annual Foresight Report

08-10-2020

The first Annual Foresight Report sets out how foresight will be used in the EU’s work towards a sustainable recovery and open strategic autonomy, Horizon scanning can identify emerging risks and opportunities. Scenario development can tease out potential synergies, for example between green and digital objectives. Dashboards can be used to measure progress towards agreed goals, while a European Foresight Network can enhance the interaction between different levels of governance.

The first Annual Foresight Report sets out how foresight will be used in the EU’s work towards a sustainable recovery and open strategic autonomy, Horizon scanning can identify emerging risks and opportunities. Scenario development can tease out potential synergies, for example between green and digital objectives. Dashboards can be used to measure progress towards agreed goals, while a European Foresight Network can enhance the interaction between different levels of governance.

Understanding EU-NATO cooperation: Theory and practice

08-10-2020

The European Union and NATO have gone through the most acute strategic challenges of the Euro-Atlantic space together. Their history of cooperation is long and has seen both ups and downs. Already in 1949, the two defence players in western Europe, NATO and the Western Union (later the Western European Union), had begun to interact. In the 1990s, as the shift from nuclear deterrence to crisis management took place, the EU and NATO began to cooperate on operations, particularly in the Balkans. In ...

The European Union and NATO have gone through the most acute strategic challenges of the Euro-Atlantic space together. Their history of cooperation is long and has seen both ups and downs. Already in 1949, the two defence players in western Europe, NATO and the Western Union (later the Western European Union), had begun to interact. In the 1990s, as the shift from nuclear deterrence to crisis management took place, the EU and NATO began to cooperate on operations, particularly in the Balkans. In the early 2000s, the two cemented a strategic partnership based on mutually reinforcing cooperation, with crisis management at its heart. One concrete example is the EU's Operation Althea, still ongoing today, which the EU took over from NATO in 2004 and conducted while also making use of NATO assets. The dynamic of cooperation has intensified in the face of new threats ranging from terrorism to climate change to hybrid warfare. Each of these challenges shares one feature: they are common to both the EU and NATO. This realisation has given political impetus to formalise the current level of cooperation, through a joint declaration and concrete follow-up actions. In practice, this means joint training and exercises on matters ranging from cyber defence to hybrid warfare. There is also close coordination on foreign policy issues, including on 5G and cooperation with China, with the aim of crafting a solid joint approach. While the coronavirus pandemic has tested the resilience of EU-NATO cooperation, being met with coordination and a robust crisis response, questions nevertheless remain regarding the way forward for EU-NATO cooperation. For instance, the need to clarify the relationship between the EU and NATO's mutual defence clauses has become apparent. The materialisation of EU ambitions for strategic sovereignty, not least through multiple defence cooperation initiatives, will also present a test to the resilience of EU-NATO cooperation.

Geopolitical implications of the COVID-19 pandemic

29-09-2020

Since the Coronavirus began its spread across the world, many analysts have speculated about its impact: would it merely accelerate previously-existing trends, or would it prove to be a geopolitical ‘game-changer’, creating a world profoundly different than before? The answer is much more complex than either or: the world during and after COVID-19 will have elements of both, the old and the new, the known and the unknown. This study explores both dimensions of the pandemic’s impact: how does it affect ...

Since the Coronavirus began its spread across the world, many analysts have speculated about its impact: would it merely accelerate previously-existing trends, or would it prove to be a geopolitical ‘game-changer’, creating a world profoundly different than before? The answer is much more complex than either or: the world during and after COVID-19 will have elements of both, the old and the new, the known and the unknown. This study explores both dimensions of the pandemic’s impact: how does it affect the geopolitical context it erupted into, and what possibility space does it open up? The first section assesses the geopolitical trends antedating the pandemic and measures its present and expected impact on them, while the second section lays out the space for action and change created by the disruption. In the third section, the interplay of trends and uncertainties is explored in three scenarios set in 2025: Strategic Distancing; Europe in Self-isolation; and Lockdown World. The study finds that European foreign policy is entering an era of re-definition in which the European Parliament should play a crucial role. This means outlining the elements of strategic autonomy, but also streamlining them with each other. As such, classical foreign policy needs to join forces with other policy areas such as environmental and technological matters, trade, strategic communication – and of course, health. In that sense alone, the pandemic is already proving to be a game-changer.

Autore esterno

Florence GAUB, Lotje BOSWINKEL; EUISS

EU cyber sanctions: Moving beyond words

25-09-2020

The EU recognises that cybersecurity and cyber-defence are critical for its prosperity, security and global ambitions. Offensive cyber-attacks by malicious actors show no sign of slowing down (not even during the coronavirus pandemic) and thus require concrete dissuasive measures. In July 2020, the EU Member States decided for the first time to use the 'teeth' rooted in the EU cyber-diplomacy framework and to 'bite cyber perpetrators back' by placing sanctions on them. This precedent has helped reinforce ...

The EU recognises that cybersecurity and cyber-defence are critical for its prosperity, security and global ambitions. Offensive cyber-attacks by malicious actors show no sign of slowing down (not even during the coronavirus pandemic) and thus require concrete dissuasive measures. In July 2020, the EU Member States decided for the first time to use the 'teeth' rooted in the EU cyber-diplomacy framework and to 'bite cyber perpetrators back' by placing sanctions on them. This precedent has helped reinforce the EU's cyber policy action.

Enforcement and cooperation between Member States

14-08-2020

The original full study presents an overview of possible options for an effective model of enforcement for a future Digital Services Act (DSA). Four key areas of regulatory design are emphasised: the failure of self-regulation in relation to platforms; the importance of correct regulatory framing; the necessity of focusing on the internal operations of platforms; and that the scope of a DSA should be limited but include robust transparency and enforcement measures. A range of enforcement strategies ...

The original full study presents an overview of possible options for an effective model of enforcement for a future Digital Services Act (DSA). Four key areas of regulatory design are emphasised: the failure of self-regulation in relation to platforms; the importance of correct regulatory framing; the necessity of focusing on the internal operations of platforms; and that the scope of a DSA should be limited but include robust transparency and enforcement measures. A range of enforcement strategies are then evaluated across a suite of Digital Single Market (DSM) legislation, alongside barriers to Member States cooperation and effective enforcement.

Autore esterno

Melanie SMITH

Scenarios for geo-politics after coronavirus: A recent Atlantic Council analysis

16-07-2020

The Atlantic Council report, 'What World Post-Covid-19? Three Scenarios', has two main takeaways: first, Chinese-US rivalry could get worse and go global, destabilising an increasingly divided EU and endangering the United States' alliances system in Asia. Second, there is no way around the US, Europe and China cooperating to develop a positive, global 'new normal'.

The Atlantic Council report, 'What World Post-Covid-19? Three Scenarios', has two main takeaways: first, Chinese-US rivalry could get worse and go global, destabilising an increasingly divided EU and endangering the United States' alliances system in Asia. Second, there is no way around the US, Europe and China cooperating to develop a positive, global 'new normal'.

Decoupling economic growth from environmental harm

16-07-2020

Decoupling economic growth from the depletion of planetary resources is a major challenge. An effective strategy will span several domains. Trends to watch include the development of negative emissions technologies, advances in the storage of renewable energy, the circular economy, and reforestation - among many others.

Decoupling economic growth from the depletion of planetary resources is a major challenge. An effective strategy will span several domains. Trends to watch include the development of negative emissions technologies, advances in the storage of renewable energy, the circular economy, and reforestation - among many others.

How to Fully Reap the Benefits of the Internal Market for E-Commerce?

15-06-2020

This paper provides a framework for maximising current and potential benefits of e-commerce for the single market while minimising economic and societal costs. It takes stock of the role of the e-Commerce Directive and analyses new challenges arising in the age of platforms. Forward-looking solutions are presented to enhance cross-border e-commerce in the EU, facilitate access to digital copyrighted content and improve the sustainability of online platforms. Finally, the paper reflects on the planned ...

This paper provides a framework for maximising current and potential benefits of e-commerce for the single market while minimising economic and societal costs. It takes stock of the role of the e-Commerce Directive and analyses new challenges arising in the age of platforms. Forward-looking solutions are presented to enhance cross-border e-commerce in the EU, facilitate access to digital copyrighted content and improve the sustainability of online platforms. Finally, the paper reflects on the planned digital services act, outlining policy recommendations. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection (IMCO).

Autore esterno

Nadina IACOB, Felice SIMONELLI

The Legal Framework for E-commerce in the Internal Market

15-06-2020

This at a glance presents an overview of the current state of play in the area of e-commerce. It discusses the existing legislative framework of the Digital Single Market as well as the technology-driven changes of market and economy that have taken place over the last twenty years. The analysis identifies areas prone to producing a positive reaction to legislative intervention. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request ...

This at a glance presents an overview of the current state of play in the area of e-commerce. It discusses the existing legislative framework of the Digital Single Market as well as the technology-driven changes of market and economy that have taken place over the last twenty years. The analysis identifies areas prone to producing a positive reaction to legislative intervention. This document was provided by the Policy Department for Economic, Scientific and Quality of Life Policies at the request of the committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection (IMCO).

Autore esterno

Ida RÜFFER, Carlos NOBREGA, Hans SCHULTE-NÖLKE, Aneta WIEWÓROWSKA-DOMAGALSKA

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