Strasbourg-Lisbon-Chicago: NATO Quo Vadis?

Uitgebreide analyse 19-08-2013

The past three summits of NATO in Strasbourg / Kehl (2009), Lisbon (2010) and Chicago (2012) have addressed rather turbulent developments in the alliance's strategic environment, requiring it to adapt to new situations faster than ever before. NATO's structures have been revised several times, and from the 16 headquarters with 20 000 staff in the 1990s only 7 will survive, with less than 9 000 staff. Territorial defence, once key element of NATO's defence posture, will mainly consist of missile and cyber defence, and - perhaps - critical infrastructure protection. So far, NATO has become much more focused on sustainable high-end operations abroad, but the perspective of more such action is rather unlikely. With the financial crisis and the concentration of the US on its security interests on their pacific coast, the European allies are required to do more for European security. Previous such attempts in the 1990s 'drowned' during the war on terror; NATO and the EU now need to emerge in a true and mutually benefiting cooperation. With the arrival of the Lisbon treaty abolishing the pillar divides between the security and defence policy and the other Union policies, the EU can play its security role thoroughly. The Treaty on European Union requires the 'progressive framing of common Union defence policy'. This process, however, is all but well underway. It is unclear if the forthcoming European Council on defence matters in December 2013 will put this issue on its strategic agenda. The model of NATO, on which the EU treaties are based since Maastricht and Amsterdam, refers to a NATO that has significantly changed since. This is why reflecting on this matter becomes more important than ever before.