Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy
The recovery from the Global Financial Crisis was characterized by sluggish output growth and by inflation remaining persistently below the inflation targets of central banks in many advanced economies despite an unprecedented monetary expansion. Ten years after the Global Financial Crisis, GDP remains below its pre-crisis trend in many economies and interest rates continue to be very low worldwide. This raises the question of whether low GDP growth and low interest rates are a temporary phenomenon or are due to a decline in long-run growth prospects (potential output growth) and equilibrium real interest rates (natural interest rate). In this paper, we address this for central banks very important question and discuss implications for monetary policy. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
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Autor externo
S. FIEDLER, K.-J. GERN, N. JANNSEN (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), M. WOLTERS (Friedrich Schiller University Jena)
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Palavra-chave
- Banco Central Europeu
- crescimento económico
- ECONOMIA
- economia monetária
- Estado-Membro UE
- FINANÇAS
- fiscalidade
- GEOGRAFIA
- geografia económica
- instituições da União Europeia e função pública europeia
- instituições financeiras e crédito
- juro
- política fiscal
- política monetária
- relações monetárias
- situação económica
- UNIÃO EUROPEIA
- zona euro