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Communication During Unconventional Times: The ECB’s Approach

15-01-2020

During the past five years, communication of the ECB has changed drastically, not least with the introduction of forward guidance. Against this backdrop, this note assesses how successful the central bank has been in influencing financial markets and expectations and discusses the challenges for future ECB communication. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

During the past five years, communication of the ECB has changed drastically, not least with the introduction of forward guidance. Against this backdrop, this note assesses how successful the central bank has been in influencing financial markets and expectations and discusses the challenges for future ECB communication. This document was provided by Policy Department A at the request of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.

Autor externo

Eddie GERBA and Corrado MACCHIARELLI

Key Macroeconomic Indicators in the Euro Area and the United States

12-11-2019

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Latest forcest by EC, IMF and OECD.

Subdued Inflation, Targets and Monetary Policy Cooperation

16-09-2019

This paper examines the case that there has been a structural change in the determination of inflation in the EU (and elsewhere) that has led to a low real-wages, low inflation, slow productivity growth regime. In fact, there appears to have been no structural change. Instead, there has been a marked convergence between the performance of those variables in national economies. The implication is that there is little scope for greater monetary coordination in the conventional sense, or adjusting the ...

This paper examines the case that there has been a structural change in the determination of inflation in the EU (and elsewhere) that has led to a low real-wages, low inflation, slow productivity growth regime. In fact, there appears to have been no structural change. Instead, there has been a marked convergence between the performance of those variables in national economies. The implication is that there is little scope for greater monetary coordination in the conventional sense, or adjusting the monetary rules (e.g., targets), since this uniformity is the origin of the low inflation problem. Outcomes can be improved with better coordination of monetary policy with non-monetary variables. There are two lines of attack. One is a short term approach using conventional instruments (monetary-fiscal, structural or labour market reforms, improving policymakers’ credibility). The other is a long term approach based on improved income distribution, a better distribution of the gains from productivity growth, and stabilisation by means of an external anchor (exchange rate).

Autor externo

Andrew Hughes Hallett

Global Trends in Inflation: Are Central Banks Barking up the Wrong Tree?

16-09-2019

The ECB will not be able to achieve its inflation target over the foreseeable future. Further expansionary measures will have at most a modest impact on financial market conditions and even less on overall demand. Moreover, the impact of any demand stimulus on inflation is highly uncertain. The reasons for low inflation persistence despite tight labour markets almost everywhere are not fully understood. It is a global phenomenon, but not necessarily due to globalisation. One global factor seems ...

The ECB will not be able to achieve its inflation target over the foreseeable future. Further expansionary measures will have at most a modest impact on financial market conditions and even less on overall demand. Moreover, the impact of any demand stimulus on inflation is highly uncertain. The reasons for low inflation persistence despite tight labour markets almost everywhere are not fully understood. It is a global phenomenon, but not necessarily due to globalisation. One global factor seems beyond dispute, namely a fall in global equilibrium real interests. However, different views of how the economy operates lead to very different views how central banks should react to this phenomenon. There is little evidence that cooperation between central banks would have a significant impact on their (limited) ability to achieve their inflation targets.

Autor externo

Daniel Gros

Monetary Policy in the Euro Area after Eight Years of Presidency of Mario Draghi: Where Do We Stand?

16-09-2019

Against the backdrop of slowing growth and subdued inflation in the euro area, we address the question to what extent additional monetary stimulus can be expected from the ECB if needed. We find that “more of the same” policies will probably not be effective and that there are no attractive alternatives there. After more than ten years of exceptionally loose monetary policy it is now the turn of fiscal and structural policies to reinvigorate the European economies.

Against the backdrop of slowing growth and subdued inflation in the euro area, we address the question to what extent additional monetary stimulus can be expected from the ECB if needed. We find that “more of the same” policies will probably not be effective and that there are no attractive alternatives there. After more than ten years of exceptionally loose monetary policy it is now the turn of fiscal and structural policies to reinvigorate the European economies.

Autor externo

Salomon FIEDLER and Klaus-Jürgen GERN

Yes, We Are Probably All Japanese Now

16-09-2019

This paper argues that the euro area has in recent years shared the same unfortunate concurrent systemic economic/financial crisis and demographic turnaround to an outright declining working age population that Japan suffered in the early 1990s. This combination will continue to depress euro area inflation dynamics for the foreseeable future, making it imperative that new fiscal policy initiatives, including public climate related investments, complement the ECB’s ongoing monetary policy stimulus ...

This paper argues that the euro area has in recent years shared the same unfortunate concurrent systemic economic/financial crisis and demographic turnaround to an outright declining working age population that Japan suffered in the early 1990s. This combination will continue to depress euro area inflation dynamics for the foreseeable future, making it imperative that new fiscal policy initiatives, including public climate related investments, complement the ECB’s ongoing monetary policy stimulus.

Autor externo

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

Fighting the Previous War: Does the World Economy Face a Deflationary Threat?

16-09-2019

Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks ...

Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist politics.

Autor externo

Marek Dabrowski

The ECB’s Unfinished Business: Challenges ahead for EMU Monetary and Fiscal Policy Architecture

16-09-2019

Under Mario Draghi’s Presidency, the range of measures and tools of the ECB expanded significantly, both by enhancing transparency and in the direction of stretching the ECB’s competences beyond the limits to the existing monetary framework. Notwithstanding these achievements, significant challenges remain. In this note, we assess the potential limits to the amount of ECB’s easing available for the future, including credit and political considerations. We argue that monetary policy stimulus alone ...

Under Mario Draghi’s Presidency, the range of measures and tools of the ECB expanded significantly, both by enhancing transparency and in the direction of stretching the ECB’s competences beyond the limits to the existing monetary framework. Notwithstanding these achievements, significant challenges remain. In this note, we assess the potential limits to the amount of ECB’s easing available for the future, including credit and political considerations. We argue that monetary policy stimulus alone may not resolve the situation of having the euro area stuck in a slowing growth environment, and ask whether the next President may want to pass the ball more strongly to national governments.

Autor externo

Corrado MACCHIARELLI, Eddie GERBA and Sebastian DIESSNER

Selected Euro Area Macroeconomic Indicators

24-05-2019

This table prepared by the Economic Governance Support Unit includes Euro Area key indicators and latest forecasts from the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

This table prepared by the Economic Governance Support Unit includes Euro Area key indicators and latest forecasts from the Commission, IMF, ECB and OECD.

Convergence in EMU: What and How?

05-06-2018

One major characteristics of an optimal currency area is its ability to maintain or foster integration and convergence among its Member States. This objective requires reaching a stable economic and financial situation and developing resilience to shocks. After reviewing the state of convergence in the euro area, this paper proposes a number of recommendations, aimed at improving convergence towards the steady state, as well as financial and cyclical convergence. Recommendations focus on several ...

One major characteristics of an optimal currency area is its ability to maintain or foster integration and convergence among its Member States. This objective requires reaching a stable economic and financial situation and developing resilience to shocks. After reviewing the state of convergence in the euro area, this paper proposes a number of recommendations, aimed at improving convergence towards the steady state, as well as financial and cyclical convergence. Recommendations focus on several policy areas, including cohesion policy, the statute of the ECB, public and private debt sustainability, fiscal rules and minimum wage policy.

Autor externo

J.Creel

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