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The 2019 ESPAS Conference: Some useful take-aways

31-01-2020

What are the probable and less probable developments of ageing? How should university deal with the disrespect for facts? Will we see a multipolar or poly-nodal world? What will be the main causes of inequality? What can government do to prevent undesired futures? The 2019 ESPAS Conference was devoted to foresight, the disciplined exploration of alternative futures and had some useful take-aways in these questions

What are the probable and less probable developments of ageing? How should university deal with the disrespect for facts? Will we see a multipolar or poly-nodal world? What will be the main causes of inequality? What can government do to prevent undesired futures? The 2019 ESPAS Conference was devoted to foresight, the disciplined exploration of alternative futures and had some useful take-aways in these questions

What if we lived up to 150 years?

16-12-2019

Would you structure your life differently if the average life expectancy was 150 years? How would society reframe its conception of education and work, and the value placed on older generations? How can we ensure a coinciding increase in healthy life years? This latest foresight publication explores impacts and policy considerations in a dramatically aged population.

Would you structure your life differently if the average life expectancy was 150 years? How would society reframe its conception of education and work, and the value placed on older generations? How can we ensure a coinciding increase in healthy life years? This latest foresight publication explores impacts and policy considerations in a dramatically aged population.

What next for Europe? A strategic foresight perspective

10-10-2019

The ESPAS report examines the challenges posed for the European Union by megatrends such as digitisation, demographic change and the climate crisis. It emphasises the need for judicious responses, arguing that inaction heightens the risk of bad outcomes. It also notes that the more equal our societies are, the better prepared we are to face the future. Topics examined The report is the fruit of an inter-institutional strategic foresight exercise.

The ESPAS report examines the challenges posed for the European Union by megatrends such as digitisation, demographic change and the climate crisis. It emphasises the need for judicious responses, arguing that inaction heightens the risk of bad outcomes. It also notes that the more equal our societies are, the better prepared we are to face the future. Topics examined The report is the fruit of an inter-institutional strategic foresight exercise.

What if technologies replaced humans in elderly care?

08-10-2019

Europeans are ageing. In 2016, there were 3.3 people of working-age for each citizen over 65 years. By 2070, this will fall to only two. As the population lives longer, our care needs grow, but fewer people will be available to deliver them. Could assistive technologies (ATs) help us to meet the challenges of elderly care?

Europeans are ageing. In 2016, there were 3.3 people of working-age for each citizen over 65 years. By 2070, this will fall to only two. As the population lives longer, our care needs grow, but fewer people will be available to deliver them. Could assistive technologies (ATs) help us to meet the challenges of elderly care?

Yes, We Are Probably All Japanese Now

16-09-2019

This paper argues that the euro area has in recent years shared the same unfortunate concurrent systemic economic/financial crisis and demographic turnaround to an outright declining working age population that Japan suffered in the early 1990s. This combination will continue to depress euro area inflation dynamics for the foreseeable future, making it imperative that new fiscal policy initiatives, including public climate related investments, complement the ECB’s ongoing monetary policy stimulus ...

This paper argues that the euro area has in recent years shared the same unfortunate concurrent systemic economic/financial crisis and demographic turnaround to an outright declining working age population that Japan suffered in the early 1990s. This combination will continue to depress euro area inflation dynamics for the foreseeable future, making it imperative that new fiscal policy initiatives, including public climate related investments, complement the ECB’s ongoing monetary policy stimulus.

Zunanji avtor

Jacob Funk Kirkegaard

European Accessibility Act

15-07-2019

To ensure the full participation of people with disabilities in society, and to reduce the fragmentation of legislation governing access to products and services, the European Commission has adopted a proposal for a directive – often referred to as the European Accessibility Act. This proposal, published on 2 December 2015, provides for a common EU definition of, and implementation framework for, accessibility requirements for certain products and services. It also aims to use the same accessibility ...

To ensure the full participation of people with disabilities in society, and to reduce the fragmentation of legislation governing access to products and services, the European Commission has adopted a proposal for a directive – often referred to as the European Accessibility Act. This proposal, published on 2 December 2015, provides for a common EU definition of, and implementation framework for, accessibility requirements for certain products and services. It also aims to use the same accessibility requirements to provide a clear definition of the existing general accessibility obligation laid down in European law. Many stakeholders welcomed the European Union's wish to honour its responsibilities under the United Nations Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, but they were divided on the means to reach this objective. In the European Parliament, the Committee on the Internal Market and Consumer Protection (IMCO) adopted its report on 25 April 2017, which was discussed in plenary on 15 September. At the same time, Parliament gave a mandate to start negotiations with the Council. On 7 December 2017, the Council agreed on a position (general approach). On 8 November 2018, the EP and the Council came to a provisional agreement. The agreed text was adopted by the EP on 13 March 2019, then by the Council on 27 March, and published in the Official Journal on 7 June 2019. Third edition. The 'EU Legislation in Progress' briefings are updated at key stages throughout the legislative procedure.

Demographic outlook for the European Union 2019

03-06-2019

This paper is the second in a series that EPRS is producing on the demographic outlook for the European Union (EU). Demography matters. The economy, labour market, healthcare, pensions, the environment, intergenerational fairness and election results – they are all driven by demography. The EU has seen its population grow substantially – by around a quarter since 1960 – and currently stands at over 500 million people. However, it is now beginning to stagnate, before its expected decline from around ...

This paper is the second in a series that EPRS is producing on the demographic outlook for the European Union (EU). Demography matters. The economy, labour market, healthcare, pensions, the environment, intergenerational fairness and election results – they are all driven by demography. The EU has seen its population grow substantially – by around a quarter since 1960 – and currently stands at over 500 million people. However, it is now beginning to stagnate, before its expected decline from around the middle of the century. With the world population having risen still more substantially and growth continuing, the EU represents a shrinking proportion of this population. The EU population is also ageing dramatically, as life expectancy increases and fertility rates fall below their levels in the past. This has serious implications across a range of areas including the economy, healthcare and pensions. Free movement within the EU and migration from third countries also play an important role in shaping demography in individual Member States and regions. The 'in-focus' section of this year's edition looks at pensions. It highlights that, whilst national reforms have largely successfully addressed issues around the sustainability of pension systems, concerns about the adequacy of pensions, particularly in the future, still remain.

Living in the EU: Demography

30-04-2019

Important effects of the ageing of its population will influence the future of the European Union (EU). The population is dramatically ageing, driven both by significant increases in life expectancy and by lower fertility rates than in the past. Population growth is therefore slowing down, along with an increasing old-age dependency ratio. Free movement within the EU, in particular east-west movement of EU citizens, has increased, reducing the population of some Member States, while increasing that ...

Important effects of the ageing of its population will influence the future of the European Union (EU). The population is dramatically ageing, driven both by significant increases in life expectancy and by lower fertility rates than in the past. Population growth is therefore slowing down, along with an increasing old-age dependency ratio. Free movement within the EU, in particular east-west movement of EU citizens, has increased, reducing the population of some Member States, while increasing that of others. These changes have serious implications across a range of areas, including the economy, labour market, healthcare and pensions. Hence, they deserve in-depth analysis.

Demographic trends in EU regions

29-01-2019

The European Union has seen its population grow substantially – by around a quarter in the five and a half decades since 1960 – to a current level of over 500 million people. However, this population is now growing too slowly, and is even expected to decline in the longer term. Issues of demography are likely to have a considerable impact on EU society. Most models used for analysing population trends suggest that, in the coming years, the EU's population will continue to age as a result of consistently ...

The European Union has seen its population grow substantially – by around a quarter in the five and a half decades since 1960 – to a current level of over 500 million people. However, this population is now growing too slowly, and is even expected to decline in the longer term. Issues of demography are likely to have a considerable impact on EU society. Most models used for analysing population trends suggest that, in the coming years, the EU's population will continue to age as a result of consistently low levels of fertility and extended longevity. Although migration may play an important role in the population dynamics within many of the EU Member States, it is unlikely that it can reverse the ongoing trend of population ageing. Demographic developments have various implications for European regions. Some of them, especially rural and remote ones, are experiencing a considerable decline in population numbers. This situation may further exacerbate the economic decline regions are already facing, and thereby widen the gap between wealthy and poor ones. Therefore, demography also severely affects the social, economic and territorial cohesion of the EU. On the other hand, the heavy concentration of population in urban centres also creates certain negative consequences, such as pollution and lack of affordable housing. Recent migration trends have improved the demographic balance in various EU regions; that said, migration affects EU regions in an uneven manner. The European structural and investment funds are mainly used for boosting economic growth in European regions, but they may also serve, in combination with other EU funds, to address issues stemming from demographic challenges. The EU also uses a number of instruments to address migration-related issues in its territories most affected by the issue.

The productivity riddle: Supporting long-term economic growth in the EU

03-12-2018

Productivity has a key role to play in the EU's long-term economic growth. The recent economic recovery has reversed the negative trend but concerns remain about long-term prospects. Productivity varies across the EU, with newer Member States reaching only about half the level of the older ones (EU-15) when measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per hour worked, but showing a higher growth dynamic. The recent poor productivity growth in the EU raises a number of important policy questions ...

Productivity has a key role to play in the EU's long-term economic growth. The recent economic recovery has reversed the negative trend but concerns remain about long-term prospects. Productivity varies across the EU, with newer Member States reaching only about half the level of the older ones (EU-15) when measured in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per hour worked, but showing a higher growth dynamic. The recent poor productivity growth in the EU raises a number of important policy questions. First, there is no consensus on the reasons behind it or the best ways to remedy it. There are also conflicting views regarding how long this situation will continue. Most economists believe the current weak growth trend may be explained by a combination of cyclical and structural economic weaknesses that need to be addressed by a mix of shorter and longer-term measures. Remedies for low productivity include increasing labour market participation, strengthening product market competition, encouraging demand, investment and lending to companies, as well as restructuring inefficient markets, disseminating technology and generalising digitalisation. In the EU context, particularly important factors conducive to productivity growth include creating a genuine single market for services, boosting digitalisation across economic sectors and addressing long-term challenges, such as the ageing society and rising income inequalities, as well as implementing long-awaited structural reforms in the Member States.

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