Are European bond markets overshooting?
Djupanalys
15-05-2017
We find that monetary variables, spillovers from US financial markets, expectations and sovereign risks are the main determinants of long-term interest rates in the EA. The empirical model does not identify recent overshooting. The observed rise since August 2016 is attributed to two factors: a) the increase in US long-term interest rates after the reversal in the Fed’s monetary stance; b) political tensions in France, Italy or Spain which generated higher perceived political risk.
Djupanalys
Extern avdelning
Christophe BLOT, Jérôme CREEL, Paul HUBERT, Fabien LABONDANCE (OFCE)
Om detta dokument
Publikationstyp
Sökord
- EKONOMI
- ekonomisk analys
- ekonomisk analys
- ekonomisk geografi
- euroobligation
- euroområdet
- FINANSER
- finansiell risk
- finansiering och investering
- fri rörlighet för kapital
- GEOGRAFI
- kredit- och finansinstitut
- kreditkostnad
- långfristig finansiering
- medlemsstat i EU
- monetära förhållanden
- nationalräkenskaper
- penningväsen
- ränta
- sparmedel